We continue to appreciate the disciplined approach to asset allocation and the experienced team behind Nordea 1–Stable Return.
Continuity is the watchword here. The strategy has been managed since its launch in 2005 by Asbjorn Trolle Hansen, Claus Vorm, and Kurt Kongsted. They have also been subadvisors of JHancock Multi-Asset Absolute Return since August 2019. The trio belongs to Nordea’s around 40-strong multi-asset team. For this strategy, the team has developed a distinctive, quantitatively based approach to asset allocation that has been applied consistently. The focus is on risk control as the fund aims to maximize returns while avoiding any losses of capital over a three-year horizon. To achieve its dual goals, the team has identified several clusters of securities both for recovery and recession periods, such as stable equities, government bonds, currency pairs, and credits. In addition, the managers use derivatives, mostly to limit market risk. These instruments are then combined and optimized monthly. The managers have the option for some tactical positioning but have not used this sleeve since late 2022 when the sudden rise in bond yields reduced the effectiveness of their tactical models. As of end-March 2025, most of the fund’s risk-on positions were in developed-markets equity, while on the defensive side the fund trusted a mix of stable stock premiums, bond duration, and currency bets.
The fund tends to have less risk than its average EUR moderate allocation global Morningstar Category peer, and this shines through, particularly in difficult periods for markets such as 2022 or the selloff in 2025 to date. The strategy has also been able to stay in the black for most three-year rolling periods since inception; however, three-year returns have dipped into negative territory in the past 12 months. In terms of its risk profile, the strategy straddles the line between the moderate and cautious allocation categories; hence, its upside participation is limited, and the strategy will typically generate most of its outperformance in down markets. The strong stock markets of 2023 and 2024 have been particularly challenging to keep up with, as stable stocks have tended to lag the growth-stock-driven market that was led by the “Magnificent Seven.” While its near-term ranking has improved, the BI EUR share class of the Luxembourg-domiciled fund currently falls into the second quartile of its category in terms of Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Returns for the trailing 10 years through end-April 2025, while the BP EUR retail share class lands in the third quartile given its much higher price tag. |