BGF Emerging Markets E2

Analyst Report
Morningstar's Take
|08/05/2024

by Samuel Lo
The BlackRock Emerging Markets strategy is led by a talented manager who employs a nimble, differentiated investment approach. Nonetheless, we have reservations around the impending expansion in the number of portfolio holdings, which may hamper the strategy’s ability to generate alpha as the portfolio extends beyond the team’s top-conviction ideas. The strategy continues to earn a People Pillar of Above Average; the Process Pillar has been downgraded to Average from Above Average.

Gordon Fraser has led this strategy since March 2017. He started his career with BlackRock in 2006 and began managing money in 2011 as a comanager with the successful BlackRock Emerging Frontiers. Fraser is a savvy and passionate investor and has consistently demonstrated sound top-down and bottom-up insights, especially when it comes to macro analysis. The strategy added Emily Fletcher as a comanager effective May 1, 2024, to assist Fraser notably in terms of stock selection. They have both been on the emerging-markets equity team for more than 15 years and have a long history of collaboration. Fletcher has managed emerging-markets portfolios since 2013, and we have a positive opinion of her. The supporting global emerging-markets equity team has continued to experience high turnover in recent years. There were six departures in 2022 and five departures in 2023, and the team shrank to 33 members as of year-end 2023 from 42 two years ago. Fraser continues to underpin our confidence here, although we remain watchful on the team’s stability.

The strategy employs a style-agnostic approach by blending top-down and bottom-up research, and Fraser has executed the strategy to great effect over the long run. The strategy has historically held 70-80 holdings, although starting May 1, 2024, the number of holdings in the strategy’s Luxembourg- and UK-domiciled vehicles will gradually increase to around 120. This follows the steps of the US vehicle’s portfolio expansion two years ago, and all vehicles will be aligned going forward. Despite some stock-picking challenges in 2022 and 2023, Fraser has a track record of adding value via stock selection in the past, and we have some concerns that the strategy’s alpha potential may be diluted over the long run as the portfolio diversifies away from the team’s high-conviction ideas.

While the strategy remains a decent proposition overall, the impending changes to the portfolio may hinder its ability to generate alpha via stock selection and reduces the strategy’s attractiveness.
 
Morningstar Medalist Rating™A decent emerging-markets offering, but upcoming changes in portfolio construction temper our conviction.
To find out how Morningstar rates a fund click here.
Morningstar Pillars
PeopleAbove Average
ParentAbove Average
ProcessAverage
 
Morningstar Medalist RatingMorningstar assigns the Medalist Rating to funds that are qualitatively and quantitatively assessed through manager research and algorithmic processes. The assessment turns on three key “pillars” – People, Process, and Parent – that yield an estimate of how well a fund will perform before fees but after adjusting for risk.
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